The Rejuvination of the EU
The European Parliamentary elections of 2019 were certainly momentous. In Italy, Poland, and Hungary, the far-right solidified their hold over their countries' politics. In the UK, the anti-EU Brexit Party took almost every constituency. And in France, Marine Le-Pen’s far-right National Rally beat out President Macron’s centrist En Marche. However, these headline-worthy defeats of the classic center-left and center-right parties cover up some larger trends — a political shift from the radical right to the center, the political importance of climate change, and the widespread support for the EU — which shed light on a bright future for the EU.
Background
The European Parliament, made up of 751 directly elected representatives from 28 different countries, holds the spot as the largest single directly elected legislative body in the world. Every 5 years, 427 million eligible voters go to the polls to vote for their parties’ representatives to sit on the European Parliament. Once the members of national parties are elected, they form Europarties — Blocks of members from national parties with similar interests (Social democracy, liberalism, conservative liberalism, leftism, etc.). The EU Parliament is currently made up of 7 parties, by level of support — The European People’s Party in the center-right, Socialists & Democrats in the center-left, Renew Europe in the center, The Greens/EFA representing green politics, Identity and Democracy in the far-right, Europe of Conservatives and Reformists representing national conservatives, and GUE/NGL on the far left. These Europarties then form a coalition to appoint the European Commission (the executive branch of the EU) and the European Parliament President.
The European Parliament’s job as a legislative branch is to vote on legislation submitted by the European Commission. However, the European Parliament has no authority to propose legislation, as that is the job of the Commission. The European Parliament elects the President of the Commission and holds hearings and consent votes on all appointed Commissioners. They can hold no confidence votes against the Commissioners, launch investigations into wrongdoing by the EU Parliament & Commission, and question members of the Commission as need be.
Pictured is the makeup of the 2019–2024 EU Parliament (before a potential Brexit). In red and blue are the two biggest parties: the center-left S&D (Socialists and Democrats) and the center-right EPP (European People’s Party). By the level of media attention, most would say that the next biggest party would be the national conservative ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists) or the far-right ID (Identity and Democracy). However, the third largest party is Renew Europe, an unabashedly pro-EU, centrist party focused on expanding and integrating the EU into a more powerful force.
The Rise of European Liberals
Fueled by the rise of En Marche in France, the Liberal Democrats in the UK, and Ciudadanos in Spain, Renew Europe gained more seats than any other party in the EU parliament, at 39 seats gained versus 37 for ID, 22 for the Greens, and -15 for ECR. However, the success of liberal parties greatly varies by region and country.
Much of the gains made by Renew Europe came from Western Europe, Northern Europe, and the UK. In France, liberals came the closest to beating the far right in a decade, led by Macron’s newly formed En Marche!, which won 14 new seats for RE. In Denmark, liberals increased their hold by 3 seats, with parties belonging to ID and the EPP suffering hard. And in the UK, the Liberal Democrats (RE) clobbered their competitors the Labor party by taking a defined pro-European stance against Brexit.
Despite these wins, in Eastern Europe, gains by RE-affiliated parties were sparse. Success was limited to anti-corruption parties such as ANO 2011 in Czechia (a soft eurosceptic party mostly focused on corruption) and USR&PLUS in Romania (including MEP Dacian Cioloș, chair of Renew Europe). However, centrists in these countries are slowly making ground against the autocratic right-wing parties chipping away against democracy.
The rise of these liberal, centrist, pro-EU parties carries a large significance in the way EU politics function. Traditionally, the two major center-left and center-right parties would build a consensus, usually status quo, that worked for them, with others having very little input. This dissatisfied many who wanted these nominally pro-EU parties to take a harder stance against the euro-skepticism and nationalism both within their own parties and in fringe parties gaining ground regionally. Both Dacian Ciolos and Emmanuel Macron abandoned their parties to take a strong stance on pro-EU integration. And as many well-known and well-liked politicians created these parties, voters saw and seized the chance to support a renewed Europe, one more integrated and united against the threat of nationalism and autocracy.
Because of the abandonment of the two main parties, for the first time since the first EU elections in 1976, the center-right and center-left parties no longer have a majority in the European Parliament. For years, the EPP and S&D have negotiated with ALDE (now RE) only on a good-faith basis when needed (as to expand their majority). However, only now does RE have a strong bargaining chip on the table — without them, no coalition can be made. This unprecedented amount of power in the hands of such a pro-EU party is already causing widespread change in EU politics. The push for a united EU army and fiscal policy (equalizing guidelines around taxation and spending) have picked up after years of stagnation. For these issues and many more, political support in key areas now exists.
The Rise of the Greens
Up until May of 2019, the Green-EFA party did not have any meaningful effect on EU politics. They were ideologically iffy, a coalition of separatist movements and green parties with no clear goal, their presence a consistent and forgettable 6%, or about 50 seats out of 751. However, the 2019 EU elections saw them increase their presence by 50% to 74 seats, or almost 10% of parliament. This success, combined with the breakdown in the hegemony of the EPP-S&D coalition, presents a grand opportunity for climate change to become a major factor in EU decision-making.
As seen in this electoral map, the Green/EFA found great success, as always, in the separatist areas of Scotland and Wales (UK), Corsica (France), and Catalonia and the Basque country (Spain). However, the parties who led the Greens to victory originate in France and Germany, where concern over climate change in large cities and with young people has finally reached the ballot box. In France, the Greens more than doubled their seats, and in Germany, the Greens doubled their holdings to become the second biggest German political party, biting at the heels of the mighty CDU led by Angela Merkel.
One of the most encouraging factors of the success of the Greens is the enthusiasm of young people in France and Germany both for environmental causes and EU elections. In Germany, about one in every 3 voters under age 30 chose the Greens, exceeding every other party by at least 17 points. This youthful enthusiasm turned to the ballot box shows a bright future for Europe, one with politically engaged citizens on an EU-wide scale. Now that the European youth have a strong voice in parliament, the EU Parliament and Commission will tackle issues like climate change and youth unemployment with urgency, lest the anger of youth turn to the extremes of the political spectrum.
Popular Support for the EU
For many years, euroskeptic politicians called out the EU for a “lack of legitimacy”. However, leading up to the 2019 EU elections, talk of an “Italeave”, a“Frexit”, or a “Polexit” were slim to none. Even the most euroskeptic politicians have abandoned the exit strategy to work inside the EU framework to halt integration. Unlike 5 years ago, it is a universal fact in Europe that the EU is here to stay, whether it becomes weaker or stronger.
The abandonment of this “Exit” rhetoric partly stems from the fact that the large majority of Europeans approve of the EU. In fact, the EU is more popular than every single national government in Europe. Voters distrust their own national government more than the EU in every single EU country.
Not only do Europeans trust the EU more than their national governments, but Europeans feel more a part of the EU than ever before. According to the bi-annual European Citizenship Report commissioned by the EU, the feeling of “EU Citizenship” reached its highest level ever in 2019, with 7/10 respondents saying they considered themselves EU citizens and 3/10 saying they strongly considered themselves this way. When compared to 2014, 11% more voters voted because they support the EU, and 6% more voted because they saw voting as their duty. In these past elections, voter turnout increased for the first time in EU history. The crisis in legitimacy that pundits talk about does not concern the legitimacy of the EU, rather the legitimacy of the parties that have governed the EU and so many nations for so long.
The rise of the pro-EU Greens and RE illustrates both this crisis of legitimacy for the EPP and S&D and this increasing enthusiasm for Europe. Voters have abandoned these traditional parties in droves, as these parties have governed the EU with no clear political objective or mandate for decades. However, still looking for pro-EU and environmentally-conscious alternatives, they have turned to the liberal and green parties with a fresh mandate: Build a greener, closer Europe that will work for everyone. This mandate will define the European Parliament and Commission for the next 5 years, as the engines of progress in the EU reignite with the fuel of widespread support and legitimacy. And while the populists and euro-skeptics like Marine Le Pen, Matteo Salvini, and Nigel Farange will do everything in their power to stop this movement, it is likely their political influence in the EU will continue to decline as 2024 approaches.
